I only continue this thread to offer the perspective of one “micro” market. I know others may find this tired, and I apologize to them.
I cannot ‘expect’ $450 on my current slow nights Tues & Wed, so I actually anticipate between $250 and $300 average on another night . . . it could be higher, but the taking from other nights to pay Mondays would occur. I would likely average out an additional $250 or so a week in gross revenues given current sales patterns, as well as reports from other eateries in neighboring towns on Monday night sales. Seriously not worth the investment to me today. In three or four months, it might be.
I am really curious about where you come up with “theoretical market” numbers. I don’t think there is a valid way to do that on a small scale. The statistical models used for large markets assume population bases large enough to make the sample valid and a broad array of consumer patterns, motivations and choices.
Yeah, it is not a perfect generalization of sample size, but it is the only real model available in the business. Reduced N (sample size) simply creates a change in the validity tests of results when compared to chance. If the general trend is that households spend 17.85 a month for pizza, then it is likely (given that they have had hopefully thousands and thousands of respondents and data points) that the comparison will carry through to our community in a general sort of way.
If you have “74.8%” of the market at 200K per year in sales your market is much too small to look at with this tool. Being open those other days would materially change the amount of choice available to the consumers in the market which would actually change the market size.
Actually, it means that I have zero competitors to fight me for market share. The amount of choice in the market is me and a small Mexican cafe. The market size won’t so much change until we start sending materials to other zip codes and expanding our sphere of influence. Or if we get a business in town that employs more than 6 people, or some significant multi-family dwelling. I’m tellin’ you, and I’m not exaggerating, we have a very uniquely flat marketplace with no traditional customer centers. Our place and the Mexican place are the only eateries within 10 miles or so.
Opening Mondays will not change the number of people in a reasonable sphere of influence, or the number of eating places available to the customers (except on Mondays). Our marketing machine is geared up for rolling through September and October to get word to more people more often, and then try to push to get our expanded dining room and menu operational by next Spring (Winter would be better). to draw people from more than 3 to 5 miles away, we need to become known as a ‘destination’ place where people can dine and relax. Beer and Wine license will help with that as will the wait staff we have trained and working fine.
I may be a little off in my estimation of the marketplace, but it isn’t way off. We’ve been working here for three years and just now have people understanding what a calzone is, and what tortellini is. It is both education and business marketing where we work and operate