Guess the volume game

So, have finally got the second location tied up. I have researched the hell out of it
(I think). Would be very interested to see what others would guess the dollar volume of this outlet to be if they were putting together a business plan…
Five mile radius gives us 6 pizzerias. Two being low quality cheap chains, Little Caesar’s, Dominos and an independant trying to play their game. One being a take and bake and two being locations that really target the sit down crowd.
We will be on the right hand side of the road on the “way home”, connected to a cold beer and wine store and a pub. Huge parking and easy access/exit. 37,000 cars a day drive by. Surrounded by commercial. Right on the edge of town, last stop for pizza or beer for 20 klms. ( Next pizzeria would be our original current location ).

What we do now…
Our current location shares the town with one other independant. We serve a “delivery” population of approx 6,000 between us. Think we do about the same volume. So say 3,000 “delivery” people each. Average ticket is $28. Used to be $30 before the government upped the tax and stole the other two dollars from us.
Doing just over $400,000 in current location, upstairs location with 62% delivery, 32% pick up and 6% walk in. No sit down.
Currently open for lunch Wed-Sat and doing just enough at lunch to cover cost’s.

So, new location will be open for lunch Mon-Sat. Huge exposure to drive by vs our current location, pub want’s to serve our pizzas. Beer and wine store want to cross promote with beer and pizza delivery, taking the number of pizzerias and dividing them into the serviced area I come up with more than double the population I currently have to myself. I know it’s a no brainer, just how much and how quick does it build is the question?
What would your projected sales be???

Hey guys, over a hundred views and no opinions? I can understand I guess, maybe even a “more” or “less” than existing store comment? Maybe not enough info?

Most of the times I have seen someone move (myself included) you would think the sales would increase even 10% but it has never panned out in my experience.

Expect to lose sales for the first few months. People are creatures of habit and even if your sinage screams you’ve moved they just wont read it and comprehension is very minimal.

If you pump your marketing efforts up you will eventually get back to what you were doing and then start to make those “obvious” increases about a year down the road.

Meanwhile your competitor will jump about 30% while you relocate - this is why you will lose sales at first.

Thanks, but, not moving… Actually starting a second location. We are currently located in a small town 20 klms out of the city. This second location will be in a completely different market. We will however be on the main road that goes to our small town.
Thinking is I will take a very few of my existing customers, that’s it.

I"m not going to try and guess the volume, but what will you do that’s unique?

What are you doing for lunch, if you’re “just covering expenses”? Having no seating would be a good explanation. What do you plan to do for lunch with seating? Full pies and sandwiches only, slices, buffet?
Will you be open ONLY for lunch at the new spot?

I’m not much help, but hoping to spur some further discussion to get some help to you.

Thanks,
Open for lunch now at current location strictly because have a staff member there anyhow making dough, doing prep… As mentioned, we are upstairs, not by any means an ideal location for the local lunch trade. We started opening for lunch , added slices, with the hope that we may cover expenses and gain some new customers. It has worked. For example, local bank ordered for lunch. We have gained four new regular evening delivery customers because of that. That is one of a number of examples I could give.
Our small town is basically a dormitory town for the larger centre where the new location will be. So, the new location being in a high traffic, very accessible, huge drive by location I am hoping will generate a way better lunch trade. New housing developments exploding around the area. Lot’s of workers. We will be closest pizza. No sit down. No interest in having any. Add’s a level of rules to follow that I have no interest in. At the “high end” of the lunch trade we have a pizzeria in the city that is located in a commercial area, sells mostly by the slice, no sit down, similar product, doing $800,000 plus a year… I do NOT think we will be even close to the same lunch trade, just using that as an example sit down is not required.
We will be open 11-10 weekdays, 11-11 Fri-Sat. Do not want the hassle of the drunks after that. Take out/delivery of whole pizza/wings/pasta.