Projecting Sales For 1st Year

I am in the process of writing up my business plan and need to do a projection for sales for the 1st year. This may be a stupid question but how would I go about trying to get a realistic idea of how to figure this out? Thanks for any input.

The way I did this years ago was a bit 007 style. Go into each of the local competitor’s first thing in the day and buy a drink and check the bill number. Do it again at the end of the day. Then you have to make a best guess estimate as to the average order.

Same here. I’d figured out that one of the two local places didn’t reset their invoice counter every day so it was easy to get an “average” sales total for the week. I even enlisted the help of a couple of friends and had them go in at various times to collect their receipts. By collecting even a modest amount one can tell that store’s average sale with no trouble.

There is also data published that gives the national, per household, dollars spent on pizza. By getting the number of households in your service area it’s easy to grab an idea of what your “potential” sales should be. Matching those numbers up with what you have found to be the true average during your little stint as a commercial spy can yield a pretty accurate figure. At least it worked for us.

At the end of the day it is still a “guess”…So make it as educated as you can then run the numbers at 50% and 150% of your guess and see where you end up…