OK, a little background. Like most new posters, I’ve been lurking this forum for a long time, reading and absorbing everything I can. While I realize there is some art to sales projections, I’m wondering if there can be more science behind it too.
So far, I’ve analyzed 90+ different locations in my area. I’ve done this two ways. First, I go to this site and get the demographic info for 1, 2, 3, and 5 mile radius.
Then, I go to this site, http://www.freemaptools.com/radius-around-point.htm and draw a radius for that address for 1, 2, 3, and 5 mile. I start with 1 mile, then change the radius size to 2 miles and add, and so on and so forth. Once that is complete, I download the KML file, and open that file with Google Earth. I then type “pizza” into the search box and count how many DELCO competitors there are.
I input these two data sets into my spreadsheet, number of households, and number of pizza places into two different pages of the same spreadsheet. The first one takes the average of the four areas and ranks the location against all others. The second page takes the data from the first page and assumes you’ll get 100% fair market share of the 1 mile radius, subtracts the homes from 1 mile to assume you’ll get 50% of fair market share of ‘new’ households in the 2 mile radius, subtracts those from the 3 mile radius and assumes you’ll get 33% fair market share of the ‘new’ households in the 3 mile radius and 20% in the 5 mile.
I’ll admit those percentages are a little arbitrary, and realize that in different areas of the country, driving 5 miles for pizza is more acceptable than others.
My hope is that some of you will download my spreadsheet, input the data for your store, and reply with how accurate it was, in terms of a percentage as I could understand why people would be guarded about their specific sales numbers. Also, I’m hoping that will keep people a little more honest with regards to the spreadsheet results. I’ve run the numbers against a few known stores, but those were from years ago and the demographics could’ve changed significantly since the sales numbers we’ve obtained. The spreadsheet, specifically the V2 page, only slightly underestimated the sales of that particular store.
If this spreadsheet works well, it could save a lot of newbies a lot of time trying to guesstimate sales at a particular location.
Unfortunately, I can’t upload the spreadsheet, so if you PM me, I’ll send you a copy, if you’re interested.