As I understand it, and stated b4, we are dealing with a commodities market item, like pork bellies…many ‘things’ effect the price, such as oil/gas/corn/grain/demand/weather & market ‘trends’…
For instance, when we use more corn to make ethanol, less is available to feed livestock…simple price/demand economics…
Cheese prices rise in part, as that represents a replacement inventory cost/trend…LIFO vrs FIFO…the last in replacement cost is rising, due in part to transportation & raw production costs…
Plus, speculation drives up the cost…
I don’t really ‘play’ the commodities market, but I used to ‘play’ with options…
For what its worth…