I made a simple one-page spreadsheet to help me roughly project my sales. I thought I’d share it with annotations for reference in case anyone is curious (weTransfer link at the bottom).
The first column is the assumptions that I’ve made. The light orange are the manually inputted data and the white is the calculated data. The dark orange with the red text are the key assumptions. Bear in mind, the figures are all made up and I don’t know how accurate they are. Additionally, they’re going to be different in every market. The second column is a basic financial summary, given the assumptions. Additionally, there is a Capex payback calculation and some quick calculations on order volumes. The third column is the sensitivity analysis, which answers the question: if my key assumption changes by X%, how does that change my Net Profit/Margin/Capex Payback period?
It’s very basic but the premise is one that most financial models follow: given my assumptions, what would be my rough financial figures, and how do these figures react to changes in my initial assumptions.
Caveat Emptor items:
The first column is the assumptions that I’ve made. The light orange are the manually inputted data and the white is the calculated data. The dark orange with the red text are the key assumptions. Bear in mind, the figures are all made up and I don’t know how accurate they are. Additionally, they’re going to be different in every market. The second column is a basic financial summary, given the assumptions. Additionally, there is a Capex payback calculation and some quick calculations on order volumes. The third column is the sensitivity analysis, which answers the question: if my key assumption changes by X%, how does that change my Net Profit/Margin/Capex Payback period?
It’s very basic but the premise is one that most financial models follow: given my assumptions, what would be my rough financial figures, and how do these figures react to changes in my initial assumptions.
Caveat Emptor items:
- I’ve never opened pizza restaurant in the USA so the initial assumptions are all made up. I cannot vouch for their accuracy. Every market is different and every restaurant’s financial model will be different. For example, this model doesn’t take into account tips or part-time employees.
- My original spreadsheet is multi-pages and includes some other items like sales growth and currency conversion. I converted everything to one-page and USD for simplicity, but I can’t vouch that the formulas are all correct after conversion.
- In a past life, I was investment professional and I made financial models for a living. I hope you can use this spreadsheet as a general guide but PLEASE don’t use it as an actual spreadsheet to project sales. You’d have to modify it VERY HEAVILY.
- Every model is different and some people like to have different assumptions/calculations/formatting. This model is just a reflection of my personal preferences. Your mileage may vary.
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