Wiseguy what is the population of the area you intend to service, get an idea of your boundaries, 2 miles, 4 miles, 6 miles, etc. you can use
melissadata.com for easy free lookups, determine the capacity of your marketplace, the average consumer last year ate about $20. per person of pizza per month. So if you live in a town of 5000 then the marketplace has $100,000 potential/month. You will divide this with your competitor, The Costco’s, The Take N’ Bakes, and the frozen pizza at the local market.
Make sure you differentiate, between what you offer and what your competition offers.
Your right about initial openings, guaranteed the first 4 to 6 weeks you will get everyone in town in once to try you out. Make sure you give everyone of them a Thank You Postcard that offers them a free order of breadsticks, or a 2-liter to entice them back in after there initial purchase. Customer retention is key to maintaining the growth of your business.
In the beginning you will probably experience a higher ratio of Dine-in & Carry-out, than Deliveries, Customers want to come in and “sniff around”, and make sure the place is a clean, comfortable environment, before they have you delivery dinner to them at home. The first 6 weeks you will probably deliver only 10 to 20% of the time, the following 6 weeks that will grow, and probably after 6 months you will be at least 50 - 50 or 60 - 40.
I would staff a little low in the start, make your staff work there butts off, cause if you over staff, it will set a bad example, and kill morale. I would rather be busy with 4 hard working employees, than slow with 8 lazy employees. If you have a fourteen year veteran coming on let him make out a schedule, he himself should be able to handle a 25 pie hour by himself, if he can’t then he’s not worth it the trouble. A good insider should be able to take about 15 orders and make them to completion in an hour, with some training that number can be as much as 20 to 25 orders per hour. Granted you have a full-service establishment which increase your labor slightly but a solid manager should be able to get you through a $1000 day all by himself, and a $1500 to $2000 day with the aid of one or two P/T Rush workers.
Consider your delivery area, and drive it. Determine the drive times from your store during peak hours to the outer reaches of your delivery area.
I deliver 10 miles out of town, but during peak hours, the speed is 60 mph on the main roads, and 35 on the arterials. So I can delivery pizza 10 miles out in about 12 to 15 minutes. However, I have another store in a much denser community and its delivery area is 4 miles radius cause it takes 15 minutes just to travel to the outer edge of the 4 mile ring.
15 minutes out 15 minutes back. thats 2 deliveries per hour, chances are that most of your deliveries will be closer to the store, but the average delivery drive will probably delivery 4 orders per hour.
If you give your customers reasonable and accurate wait times, they won’t complain to much.
Remember the average delivery time in America is 45 minutes, and my guess is the average table service in America is 30 minutes. So as long as you can meet or exceed times like these you will win over your competitions market-share and more.