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scary stuff..i think this means flour prices will be rising

Re: scary stuff…i think this means flour prices will be ris

There is another problem the wheat farmers are facing here. This is the driest spring in over 40 years. The wheat crop should be about a foot tall right now and most of it is about 4 inches.

Even with these adverse local conditions there is an expectation that the world supply should be going up but the price will also be going up.
"INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL
[URL]http://www.igc.org.uk/en/downloads/gmrs … rsumme.pdf[/url]"]Although the world wheat crop estimate is increased because of significant upward revisions for China and Russia, markets reacted nervously to the very difficult spring planting conditions in parts of North America and overly dry weather in southern and eastern Europe. Heavy demand for remaining Black Sea region supplies of feed and milling wheats added to the more bullish market picture.
[/QUOTE]
 
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Re: scary stuff…i think this means flour prices will be ris

Another Kenyan Trojan horse!
 
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Re: scary stuff…i think this means flour prices will be ris

We had record harvest this year up about 20% on the previous best.

Talk that this year may be down due to low pre-seeding rains but they got good rains at the death and subsequent good follow ups happening at the moment so a big harvest is expected.

If we can keep germ free another big year is looming which means we will be bailing out the shortfall. The only problem is that we get charged world prices not local so the flour price for us is sure to rocket yet again.

Dave
 
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Re: scary stuff…i think this means flour prices will be ris

I asked my vendor about what their market analysts are seeing in the future for wheat, based on the threat of the Ug99 virus, and this was their reply:

Below are the comments from our “in-house” wheat analyst:

"Other than the article from the LA Times, that a few other reporters are feeding from, I cannot find any new information. I was told the UG99 can be controlled with fungicides just like other rust we have in the US today. So no, I do not see anything new, just rehashed news. "

If this were a serious threat the markets would have already factored into current pricing.

So, my question is… What experience or advice do you guys and gals have about asking for a price lock-in at our current prices? Our flour cost has come down considerably, and I have to assume that our vendor has purchased a good supply of flour. How do I approach them, and ask for… Let’s say 6 months or a year of price-lock on flour?

Is it even a possibility, or will they laugh me off the stage?
 
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Re: scary stuff…i think this means flour prices will be ris

The winter wheat harvest is in progress here in Kansas right now. The crop was a bust in both Texas and Oklahoma, so everything depends upon Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, and South Dakota for winter wheat. Personally, I don’t think KS will fare as well as we are expecting it to with this years harvest. While we use flour mostly from spring wheat (think North Dakota, Montana, and Canada) if there is a shortage of winter wheat, the large wholesale flour users who typically buy winter wheat flour will shift to spring wheat flour, in doing so, putting a greated strain on spring wheat inventories, and having the affect of increasing spring wheat/flour prices. Spring wheat overall, doesn’t look all that good this year, so I’m not looking for any further relief in flour pricing through this new crop year. With all of the uncertainties this year, you may have a real problem getting a contract 6-months out unless you are a very major player buying in rail car lots.
Because world wheat inventories are better than they were last year, I seriously doubt that we will see a repeat of last years flour problems, just don’t go looking for cheap flour and you won’t be disappointed.
Tom Lehmann/The Dough Doctor
 
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Re: scary stuff…i think this means flour prices will be ris

They don’t have wheat but Foodservice.com has a great section called Market Reports which shows the history of quite a few commodity prices (http://www.foodservice.com/marketprices/). It gives a nice basic overview of price trending, if anyone is interested.

Note: I believe you do have to register but it’s free.
 
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